Japan Nuclear Update – British Embassy
by Paul Atkinson on Tuesday, 15 March 2011 at 18:55
I have just returned from a conference call held at the British Embassy in Tokyo. The call was concerning the nuclear issue in Japan. The chief spokesman was Sir. John Beddington, Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government, and he was joined by a number of qualified nuclear experts based in the UK. Their assessment of the current situation in Japan is as follows:
In case of a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ (defined as total meltdown of one reactor with subsequent radioactive explosion) an exclusion zone of 30 km would be the maximum required to avoid affecting peoples’ health. Even in a worse situation (loss of two or more reactors) it is unlikely that the damage would be significantly more than that caused by the loss of a single reactor.
The current 20km exclusion zone is appropriate for the levels of radiation/risk currently experienced, and if the pouring of sea water can be maintained to cool the reactors, the likelihood of a major incident should be avoided. A further large quake with tsunami could lead to the suspension of the current cooling operations, leading to the above scenario.
The bottom line is that these experts do not see there being a possibility of a health problem for residents in Tokyo. The radiation levels would need to be hundreds of times higher than current to cause the possibility for health issues, and that, in their opinion, is not going to happen (they were talking minimum levels affecting pregnant women and children – for normal adults the levels would need to be much higher still).
The experts do not consider the wind direction to be material. They say Tokyo is too far away to be materially affected.
If the pouring of water can be maintained the situation should be much improved in time, as the reactors’ cores cool down.
Information being provided by Japanese authorities is being independently monitored by a number of organizations and is deemed to be accurate, as far as measures of radioactivity levels are concerned.
This is a very different situation from Chernobyl, where the reactor went into meltdown and the encasement, which exploded, was left to burn for weeks without any control. Even with Chernobyl, an exclusion zone of 30 km would have been adequate to protect human health. The problem was that most people became sick from eating contaminated food, crops, milk and water in the region for years afterward, as no attempt was made to measure radioactivity levels in the food supply at that time or warn people of the dangers. The secrecy over the Chernobyl explosion is in contrast to the very public coverage of the Fukushima crisis.
The Head of the British School asked if the school should remain closed. The answer was there is no need to close the school due to fears of radiation. There may well be other reasons – structural damage or possible new quakes – but the radiation fear is not supported by scientific measures, even for children.
Regarding Iodine supplementation, the experts said this was only necessary for those who had inhaled quantities of radiation (those in the exclusion zone or workers on the site) or through consumption of contaminated food/water supplies. Long term consumption of iodine is, in any case, not healthy.
The discussion was surprisingly frank and to the point. The conclusion of the experts is that the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami, as well as the subsequent aftershocks, was much more of an issue than the fear of radiation sickness from the nuclear plants.
Let’s hope the experts are right!
end of the report/Japanese Follows============
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ใใใปใฉๆฑไบฌใฎ่ฑๅฝๅคงไฝฟ้คจใฎไผ่ฆใใๆปใฃใฆใใพใใใๆฅๆฌใฎๅ็บใฎ็พ็ถใซใคใใฆใงใ ใใ่ฑๅฝๆฟๅบไธปๅธญ็งๅญฆ้กงๅ(Chief Scientific Adviser)ใธใงใณใปใใใฃใณใใณ ๏ผSir John Beddington๏ผใไปฃๅผ่
ใใคใจใใๆฐๅใฎๅๅญๅ็บ้ปใฎๅฐ้ๅฎถใๅๅธญใใพใใใๆฅๆฌ ใฎ็พ็ถใซใคใใฆใๅฝผใใฎ็ถๆณๅคๆญใฏไธ่จใฎ้ใ๏ผ
ๆฏ่ผ็ๆชใๅ ดๅ๏ผ๏ผๅใฎๅๅญ็ใฎๅฎๅ
จใกใซใใใฆใณใจใใใซๅบใฅใๆพๅฐๆง็็บใฎๅ ด ๅ๏ผใ้ฟ้ฃใจใชใขใฎ๏ผ๏ผใญใญใฏไบบใฎๅฅๅบทใฎๅฎๅ
จใๅฎใใใใซๅๅใช่ท้ขใงใใใใใใฃใจ ๆๆชใช็ถๆณใงใใ๏ผ๏ผๅไปฅไธใฎๅๅญ็ใใกใซใใใฆใณใใๅ ดๅ๏ผ๏ผใคใฎๅๅญ็ใฎใกใซใใ ใฆใณใฎใจใใจๆฏในใ่ขซๅฎณใซใใปใฉๅคใใใฏใชใใงใใใใ
็พ็ถใฎ๏ผ๏ผใญใญ้้ฟๆ็คบๅบใฏ็พ็ถใฎๆพๅฐ่ฝใฌใใซใซใใใใฆ้ฉๅใช็ฏๅฒใงใใใใใใฎ ใพใพ็ๅฟใธใฎๆตทๆฐดๆณจๅ
ฅใ็ถใใใจใใงใใใฐใๅคงใใชไบไปถใ้ฒใใใจใใงใใใงใใใใ ใใใใใใใชใๅฐ้ใจๆดฅๆณขใ่ตทใใๅ ดๅใๆตทๆฐดๆณจๅ
ฅใใงใใชใใชใๅฏ่ฝใใใใใใฎๅ ด ๅไธ่จใฎใกใซใใใฆใณใ่ตทใใๅฏ่ฝๆงใใใใงใใใใ
ๅบๆฌ็ใซใๅฐ้ๅฎถใฏๆฑไบฌไฝไบบใฎๅฅๅบทใธใฎๆชๅฝฑ้ฟใฏใใใพใใใจไบๆณใใฆใใๅฅๅบทใซๆชๅฝฑ ้ฟใ่ตทใใใใใซ็พ็ถใฎๆพๅฐ่ฝใฎไฝ็พๅใฎใฌใใซใๅฟ
่ฆใๅฐ้ๅฎถใฏใใฎใใใช็ถๆณใซใฏใช ใใชใใจ่จใใ๏ผใใใใๅฐ้ๅฎถใฏๅฆๅฉฆใๅญไพใธๅฝฑ้ฟใใใปใฉใฎๆพๅฐ่ฝใๅบๆบใซใใฆใ ใใๅฅๅบทใชๅคงไบบใซใจใฃใฆใฏใใใซๆพๅฐ่ฝใฎใฌใใซใ้ซใใชใใชใใจๅฝฑ้ฟใฏใชใใจใใใ๏ผ
ๅฐ้ๅฎถใฏ้ขจๅใใฏ้ขไฟใชใใจ่จใใๆฑไบฌใฏ็พๅ ดใใๅๅ้ขใใฆใใฎใงใๅฝฑ้ฟใฏใชใใง ใใใใ
ๆตทๆฐดๆณจๅ
ฅใ็ถใใใใจใใงใใใฐใๅๅญ็ใๅทใใ๏ผ๏ผๆฅ้ๅพใซ็ถๆ
ใฏๅคงใใไธๅใใง ใใใใ
ๆฅๆฌๆฟๅบใใใฎๆ
ๅ ฑใฏ่คๆฐใฎ็ฌ็ซใใๅฃไฝใซใใใขใใฟใชใณใฐใใใคใฅใใๆพๅฐ่ฝใฎใฌ ใใซใซ้ขใใฆใฎๆ
ๅ ฑใฏ็็ขบใจๅคๆญใใใฆใใ
ใใงใซใใใคใชใจใฏๅ
จใๅฅใช็ถๆณใงใใใใงใซใใใคใชใฎๅ ดๅใๅๅญ็ใๅฎๅ
จใกใซใใ ใฆใณใใๆใไปใใใซไฝ้ฑ้ใ็ใ็ถใใใใใงใซใใใคใชใงใใใ๏ผ๏ผใญใญใซ้ฟ้ฃใพใผ ใณใใใใงใใใใๅๅใซไบบใฎๅฅๅบทใๅฎใใใจใฏใงใใใงใใใใใใงใซใใใคใชใฎๅ ด ๅใไบไปถใใไฝๅนดใๅพใพใง็พๅฐใฎ้ฃๆใๆฐดใซๅซใพใใๆพๅฐ่ฝใฏไธๅใขใใฟใชใณใฐใใใช ใใฃใใจใๅฑ้บๆงใซใคใใฆใฎๆ
ๅ ฑใๅ
จใ็ฅใใใชใใฃใใใใๆฑใใใ้ฃๅใ้บฆใ็ไนณใ ๆฐดใชใฉใ้ฃใน็ถใใ็พๅฐใฎไบบใ
ใ็
ๆฐใซใชใฃใใไบๅฎใฏ้ ใใใใใงใซใใใคใชใฎไบไปถใจ ใใในใไปๅใฎ้ๅธธใซ้ใใใ็ฆๅณถใฎไบไปถใใใฎๆๅณใงใๅคงใใ็ฐใชใใงใใใใ
ใใชใใฃใทใฅในใฏใผใซใฎๅญฆ้ทใใไผๆ กใใคใฅใใในใใใฉใใใๅฐใญใใๅฐ้ๅฎถใฎ็ญใ ใฏใๆพๅฐ่ฝใซ้ขใใๆใใฎใใใชใใฐไผๆ กใฏๅฟ
่ฆใชใใไฝ้ใๅปบ็ฉใฎ็ถๆ
ใชใฉใซ้ขใใ็ ็ฑใฏใใใใใใใใใชใใงใใใ็งๅญฆ็ใซๆพๅฐ่ฝใฎๆใใฏ ๅญไพใซใจใฃใฆใๅ
จใใใใพ ใใใ
ใจใผใๅคใฎ่ฃๅ
ใซ้ขใใฆใๅฐ้ๅฎถใฏใจใผใๅคใฏ็พๅ ดใงๆพๅฐ่ฝใไฝๅ
ใซๅธๅใใๅ ดๅใๆฑ ใใ้ฃๆใ้ฃในใๅ ดๅใ ใๅฟ
่ฆใจ่ชฌๆใใใใใใซใใจใผใๅคใฎ้ทๆ็ๅฉ็จใฏๅฅๅบทใซใใ ใชใใจ่ฉฑใใใ
ไผ่ฆใฏ้ฉใใปใฉใใฉใณใฏใงๆญฃ็ขบใงใใใๅฐ้ๅฎถใฎๅคๆญใซใใใฐใๅ็บใใใฎๆพๅฐ่ฝใฎๆใ ใใใใๅฐ้ใจๆดฅๆณขใใใฎ่ขซๅฎณใฏใใฃใจๅคงใใชๅ้กใงใใใใ
ๅฐ้ๅฎถใฎๅคๆญใไฟกใใพใใใ๏ผ
Fairly objective well-informed commentary on the nuclear reactors–British Embassy
โข
